Contrary to popular opinion, says Jason Williams, it is unlikely that BTC/USD will react significantly to the miner reward shift to 6.25 BTC per block next May.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) 2020 block reward halving continues to generate mixed opinions regarding price performance, as one analyst suggests its impact will be next to nothing.
In a tweet on Dec. 1, Jason Williams, co-founder at digital asset fund Morgan Creek Digital, said that unlike many others, he believed markets would not move as a result of the halving next May.
Williams: BTC halving will be “non-event”
“Bitcoin halving in May 2020 won’t do anything to the price. It will be a non-event,” he summarized.
Bitcoin’s block reward halving will reduce the amount of BTC paid to miners for each block from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC. As Cointelegraph reported, the event is broadly expected to become a catalyst for a bull market.
Analysts diverge over when the reaction might take place — opinions range from several months before the halving to several months after it.
At the same time, as statistician Willy Woo noted two weeks previously, Bitcoin’s current position marks a sharp contrast to the bullish setup to its previous two halvings. 2020, he concluded, will be a “unique” first for Bitcoin.
Rumors abound over “unique” halving
The multitude of factors that could potentially influence the halving’s effect has even led to disagreements within the same small group of market participants.
Anthony Pompliano, a fellow Morgan Creek Digital co-founder well-known for his Bitcoin advocacy, previously implied that at $7,200, BTC/USD has yet to benefit from the halving.
“The Bitcoin halving is not priced in,” he tweeted on Nov. 10. At the time, BTC/USD traded at around $8,750 — 20% higher than at press time.
According to a historically accurate Bitcoin price model, meanwhile, the long-term impact on the halving is all but assured. By 2022, the Stock-to-Flow tool predicts, BTC/USD should have jumped to over $100,000.
The model’s creator, PlanB, doubled down on the figure in October while acknowledging that its accuracy may not last beyond the next few halving events.
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